It's hard to see ahead in a big earthquake. It takes time for the dust to settle and the view to clear. That is what Japan's reaction to the Feb. 13 six-party accord on North Korea's nuclear program suggests. The assessment of Japanese experts of the pact, including the fact that Japan won't have to shoulder any of the aid burden, has been mixed. But a common feature has been discussion of China's role in the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis and thereafter.
That was clear at an informal meeting of Japanese experts on the Korean Peninsula a while ago. "Though the U.S. and North Korea stood in the limelight in the Feb. 13 pact, the leading players were in fact the U.S. and China in their competition over the future of Northeast Asia," said a participant who delivered a keynote paper. "No problem can be resolved until America recognizes that North Korea is wholly a tributary nation of China."
What does he mean by a tributary nation? China, he said, will hold the power of life and death over North Korea's economy and is colonizing the North as we speak. China's accelerating investment in North Korea in conjunction with the development of its three northeastern provinces, he claimed, is an integral part of its Korean Peninsula strategy. As an example, he cited transport infrastructure development projects now underway with Chinese capital.
A program to construct an expressway linking China's Jilin Province with North Korea's Rajin and Chongjin Ports is underway. A China-North Korea joint venture two years ago secured 50-year development and user rights for Rajin Port. China already uses two of the three Chongjin Port wharves. A decision has been made to construct an expressway between the Yalu River estuary and Pyongyang for the transport of mineral resources, which North Korean authorities agreed to. China provides almost all the capital needed for infrastructure development under its leadership, and North Korea only the labor.
And infrastructure development is distinguished by the priority given to military purposes. The specifications of railroad and expressway projects support transport of military hardware like tanks. China provides over 70 percent of crude oil and over 40 percent of food needed by North Korea, and 80 percent of daily necessities sold in the market are Chinese. The North Korean economy has all but been incorporated into China's Shenyang economic zone.
When he finished his somewhat provocative presentation, other participants joined the debate.
The U.S. must have accommodated China's plan to colonize North Korea, one said. Japan will follow the principles America adopts, but the Korea Straight could turn into the frontline of Japan's security depending on what choice South Korea makes."
"North Korea is living on borrowed time, but time is crucial for China, another said. From China's perspective, North Korea can't be allowed to implode for the time being. China needs five years at the least, but can North Korea hold out until then? Once North Korean refugees swarm into China, the Northeast development program is finished."
"China doesn't want a unified Korea even without U.S. troops stationed there, another said. There was a large-scale territorial between China and Vietnam in 1979, only three years after Vietnam was unified. China welcomes Korean nationalism pointing south, to Japan, but is concerned about its possible advance northward, to China."
These kinds of remarks have become common in Japan. They could just be a reflection of a sense of isolation in the wake of the North Korean nuclear accord, but even so. Korea is up in arms about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's remarks about the World War II comfort women. It seems to pay too little attention to the thoughts Japanese intellectuals have about present developments on the Korean Peninsula.
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