Far East. Photo: RIA Novosti
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"Unless one is a Sinologist, China is one of those topics that are best not thought of at all. Like the fiscal cliff, or cancer, or death. Alas, one can't afford not to, even if thinking on the subject does not do much good. One can't think China away. One can reason as much as one pleases, it will still be there - or (God forbid) here", Sergei Roy, Former Editor-in-Chief, Moscow News.
The obvious answer to the
challenge that China's growth might so menacingly represent is for
America, Europe and Russia to form some sort of a united front -
politically, economically, financially, and even militarily. The
Vladivostok to Vancouver arc, in the words of one of the saner US
presidents.
For reasons that would take an army of
psychiatrists to explain and no one to cure, America and, to a
considerable extent, Europe see Russia as the greater menace. Just like
in the good old days of Cold War I, they endeavor to "contain" this
menace by pouring money into the construction of BMD, by moving, or
threatening to move, NATO forces ever closer to Russia's borders, by
virulent Russophobic propaganda, by support for orange-colored
revolutionists within Russia whom most Russians view with curiosity as a
bunch of mountebanks, and by other well-known, and well-worn,
stratagems.
Just imagine what ceasing these plainly
idiotic activities would do for world stability, including the handling
of the China problem. However, one has to be realistic. Obama clearly
represents the more rationally-thinking element in the US political
class - and see what that rational element is doing in regards to Russia
right at this moment: it removes that laughing stock of legislation,
the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, only to replace it quickly, if somewhat
clumsily, with the Magnitsky Bill. What can one expect from people like
that? Surely not some sane thinking on the possible usefulness of Russia
as an ally in the turbulence, if not chaos, that the world is in for,
and not too far in the future, either.
Words like turbulence and chaos sound scary, of course, but what would you? America's national debt, now nearing $17 trillion, is a bubble that has to burst some day. That's unavoidable, that has to be taken as a given. Another given is that America's leaders will do their best (or worst, depending on your own position on the map) to let anyone but the great American people suffer from the effects of that bubble bursting. But will those others - and America's biggest creditor China above all - eat humble pie over such a proceeding? That would be strange to expect of a nation as proud and powerful as China.
Words like turbulence and chaos sound scary, of course, but what would you? America's national debt, now nearing $17 trillion, is a bubble that has to burst some day. That's unavoidable, that has to be taken as a given. Another given is that America's leaders will do their best (or worst, depending on your own position on the map) to let anyone but the great American people suffer from the effects of that bubble bursting. But will those others - and America's biggest creditor China above all - eat humble pie over such a proceeding? That would be strange to expect of a nation as proud and powerful as China.
We thus have all the makings
of an almighty conflict. I would not be so foolhardy as to speculate on
what form that conflict may take. Too many imponderables. Specialist
knowledge of a vast array of data on finance and economics is required
to advance even the most tentative hypotheses regarding events in the
coming three to five years. Even people who do have that kind of
specialist knowledge are now discussing scenarios that appear pure
fantasies to an outsider like myself. Like America and Canada (some say
Mexico) forming a new nation and reneging on all or some of the debts of
the no longer existing nation, the United States.
No,
that's too far-fetched for me. I can only state the obvious: America
will soon need all the help from other nations that it might scrape up,
and Russia is a natural in this respect. Europe, with its own bubbles
bursting all over the place, is not much good even to itself, let alone
coming to the aid of anyone else in a crunch.
Why is
Russia America's natural ally vis-a-vis China? At this point I beg to
differ from Vladimir Putin. It's all very well for him to talk of Russia
catching the “Chinese wind in the sails of its economy”. To me, this
sounds like putting a good face on a bad business. Concerned individuals
report that what really happens on the ground is slow, and often not so
slow, Chinese colonization of Russia's Far East and parts of Siberia.
In some areas, up to 90 percent of economic activity there is said to be
driven by Chinese capital, Chinese manpower, Chinese management.
The
other day I heard a retired colonel-general say something that sort of
put the finishing touch to the picture. It appears that as a result of
the "reform" of Russia's armed forces by the ex-defense minister
Serdyukov, the so and so now facing, one hopes, the prospect of a long
sojourn in a solitary cell, the many thousands of miles of the
Chinese-Russian border will be defended, in case of red alert, by two
Russian brigades. Repeat, two brigades, not divisions even. Facing them
across the Amur is a Chinese grouping that is greater than Russia's
entire ground forces. Makes you think, what?
Source : Here
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